Validación de los Modelos de Cambio Climático hidrostáticos y no hidrostáticos sobre la climatología de Ecuador en las variables de precipitación y temperaturas extremas
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
La presente investigación tiene como objetivo determinar las bondades o de ciencias de los modelos de cam- bio climático PRECIS hidrostático y TL959 no hidrostático frente a la climatología de Ecuador, basándose en la validación de la precipitación y temperaturas extremas. Se plantea la hipótesis de que si estos modelos de cambio climático reconstruyen adecuadamente la climatología mediante cada una de sus climatologías bases iniciales, entonces sus proyecciones hacia el futuro serán más ciertas. Con este objetivo, se dividió a Ecuador en una matriz 11 x 11, permitiendo su estudio por regiones, donde se determinaron estadísticos para cada celda mes a mes, tanto para la climatología como para los modelos. Al encontrar las diferencias de los estadísticos del modelo menos los de la climatología se estableció que es necesario mejorar la parametrización física en zonas motañosas de gran altura, típicas de la geografía andina del país, ya que en estas regiones se encontró el mayor desajuste de los modelos.
Palabras Clave
modelos de cambio climático, PRECIS, TL959, climatología, Ecuador
Citas
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Dickinson, R. E., R. M. Erroco, F. Giorgi and G.T. Bates. 1989. A regional climate model for the western United States. Climate Change 15: 383–422.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla. 2000. Seasonal prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model. J. Climate 13: 2605–2627.
Giorgi, F. 1990. On the simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. J. Climate 3: 941–963.
Giorgi, F., J.W. Hurrell, M. R. Marinucci and M. Beniston. 1997. Elevation signal in surface climate change: A model study. J. Climate 10: 288–296.
Giorgi, F., L. Mearns, C. Shields and L. McDaniel. 1998. Regional nested model simulations of present day and 2xCO2 climate over the central Great Plains of the United States. Climate Change 40: 457–493.
Giorgi, F. and G.T. Bates. 1989. On the climatological skill of a regional model over complex terrain. Mon.Wea. Rev 117: 2325–2347.
Giorgi, F. and L. O. Mearns. 1999. Introduction to special section: Regional climate modeling revisited. J. Geophys. Res 104: 6335–6352.
Giorgi, F. 1990. On the simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. J. Climate 3:941–963.
Giorgi, F. and L. O. Mearns. 1999. Introduction to special section: Regional climate modeling revisited. J. Geophys. Res. 104: 6335–6352.
Hong, S-Y. and A. Leetmaa. 1999. An evaluation of the NCEP RSM for regional climate modeling. J. Climate 12: 592–609.
Jones, R. G., J. M. Murphy and M. Noguer. 1995. Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model, I,Assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundary conditions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 121: 1413–1449.
Jones, S., M. Jones, and S. Deo. Using keyphrases as search result surrogates on small screen devices. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing, 8(1): 55–68, 2004.
Takle, E. S. Coauthors. 1999. Project to intercompare regional climate simulations (PIRCS): Description and initial results. J. Geophys. Res 104: 19443–19461.
Leung, L. R., S. J. Ghan, Z-C. Zhao, Y. Luo, W-C. Wang and H-L. Wei. 1999. Intercomparison of regional climate simulations of the 1991 summer monsoon in eastern Asia. J. Geophys. Res 104:6425–6454.
Laprise, R., D. Caya, M. Giguere, G. Berger, J. P. Blanchet, G. J. Boer and N. A. McFarlane. 1998. Climate and climate change in on, H. Cote western Canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model. Atmos.–Ocean 36: 119–167.
Pan,Z.,J.H.Christensen,R.W.Arritt,W.J.Gutowski Jr., E. S. Takle and F. Otieno. 2001. Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 106: 17735–17751.
Roads, J., S-C. Chen and M. Kanamitsu. 2003. U.S. regional climate simulations and seasonal forecasts. J. Geophys. Res.,108, 8606, doi:10.1029/2002JD002232
Xin-Zhong Liang, Li Li and Kenneth E. Kunkel. 2004. Regional Climate Model Simulation of U.S. Precipitation during 1982–2002. Part I: Annual Cycle. Journal of Climate 2004; 17: 3510-3529.